It's been more than six months since WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury struggled to a split decision victory over ex-UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou, but that performance continues to haunt Fury.
Ngannou knocked Fury down in the third round of that Oct. 28 bout in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but Fury hung on to win. Fury had been expected to blow Ngannou out, and after that performance, the sports book BetOnline tightened the line considerably. And when ex-unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua knocked Ngannou out in the second on March 8 in Riyadh, the line switched and Usyk became the favorite.
With less than two weeks until Fury and Usyk finally meet in Riyadh for the undisputed title, Usyk remains a slight favorite.
“The first major movement in the odds came on Oct. 28 after Fury won an extremely controversial decision versus Francis Ngannou," said Dave Mason, BetOnline's sports book brand manager. "Before his fight with the former UFC champ, Fury was -240 versus Usyk (+190). Within hours after his disappointing performance vs Ngannou, Fury’s odds moved down to -160. Over the next few months the odds continued to even out. Usyk became the favorite on March 8 after Ngannou got destroyed by Anthony Joshua.”
At the time the first line was made, the implied odds of Fury at -240 gave Usyk about a 30 percent chance to win. Usyk is now -130 with Fury at even money, and Mason expects the line will remain around pick 'em until fight night. The recent money has been from professional bettors playing Usyk. The implied odds now give Usyk a 57 percent chance to win.
"Both sharp and public money has come in," Mason said. "This is shaping up as a 'Pros versus Joes' fight [from a betting standpoint]," he said. "Almost all of the sharp cash that has come in has been on Usyk. However, 61 percent of the tickets are on Fury."
Mason said wagering action has been good, but said the book has received only about five percent of the total handle it will receive. An undisputed heavyweight title fight in Las Vegas would always generate strong betting handles among American bettors, but because the fight card will start in the day in the U.S., it will decrease the handle to a certain degree.
"It should be one of the biggest bet boxing matches of the year," Mason said. "However, it will do a lot more action if it was taking place in Vegas. Night boxing events always do better than afternoon boxing events for our American players."
The over-under is 10.5 rounds. Over is a heavy favorite at -280. Under is +220.